The increase in life expectancy, a constant element in the history of mankind for two hundred years, is obviously good news. Though very unequal, it reflects a reduction in newborn and maternal mortality and enables those benefiting from a publicly funded health care system and education to live long enough to produce the necessary wealth for pension financing for previous generations and the education of future generations.
The constantly increasing life expectancy, which is likely to continue, will have a clear impact on the ongoing restructuring of our societies, impact whose outlines are still unclear.
First, it will lead to a shift in our perception of age: while in the XIX century a 30-year-old woman was considered old and had to give up any romantic relationship, there is no longer any time-limit on love today; and it will soon become possible to live long enough to enjoy the company of one’s grandchildren and even great-grandchildren.
There are, however, other dimensions, more uncertain, that soon will need to be taken into account: first, we can expect to work longer before retirement, in order to finance a much longer retirement. Thus, someone who can live long enough will consume, during the extra years, what he would have passed on to his young heirs in former times: the increase in life expectancy thus will act, and already acts as a tax on inheritance, making it more difficult for young people the purchase of an apartment or business assets.
More broadly, for society as a whole, the increase in life expectancy is bound to require changes in the way we think about our collective value system and social organization.
Politically, it will give almost absolute power to the elderly, who will be the most numerous. Since old people will have no interest in inflation, this will make it more difficult for young people to borrow money. Similarly, since seniors will be reluctant to relinquish their positions and privilege, the number of places available for the younger ones will be reduced, which will push them towards the process of entrepreneurship, or into exile, or into despair. Economically, seniors will push to ensure that new products and services meet their own needs above all: health, reorganization of housing, transport, and entertainment…
Militarily, this will decrease the offensive capability of rich nations, where people will live the longest, because propensity for sacrifice decreases with the remaining life of individuals; which will lead, and already leads these nations to make war only from a distance, against fighters whose earthly life, in their own eyes, has less value.
To make the most of this evolution, we will have to alter drastically our values. And first, to admit that
adolescence extends to age 30 and youth to age 40; that it is normal to work and have children up to the age of 70 and to live out an active retirement up to the age of 90 at least.
We are far from being prepared. If this is not being done, then it will start a conflict between those who will be comfortably installed in power for another half a century, and others, who will have access to nothing; they will come from our wealthy districts, our urban suburbs, and the Sahel, to overturn this world of elderly, pathetically self-proclaimed young for life.
j@attali.com